Thursday, July 16, 2009

Updated VIX chart

Well I went back late last night looking through all of my charts, I have to say the more I look at the charts the more I agree with my analysis all along which is it is a lot safer to be a bear right now than a bull.
Look at these VIX charts the weekly chart bounced off long term trend line, the daily VIX chart as you can see is at the bottom of the channell and respecting that trendline as well. The volume on this whole rally this week has been moderate at best. My conclusion is this has been a short covering rally for the most part. Just last week the outlook on the news was very bearish, couple that with us being at the lower end of that head and shoulders neckline we have been discussing, I think a lot of people went short at that point and have been covering for losses all the way up bringing the market up with it. Remember the market does the expected but in unexpected ways. Unless I see a high volume break out to new highs and the VIX drop well below these trendlines I believe all of this will just give us a better opportunity to go short.
Another reason I believe short covering is the basis of this rally is this, if you look at the charts this week you will see NO real pullback at all. Which is a sign of short covering killing all of the bears in the process and giving them no pullback to even average down to at least break even.
Respect your stops everyone, this market has no conscience and will not feel bad wiping out your account if you let it. Be careful right now, watch the MACD like I said yesterday, a cross on the 60 min chart may be a great short sell signal, but again be careful.