First off I want to thank all of you for reading my blog over the last few years, it's been a pleasure!
Now starting November 1st, 2012 the blog will transition to a weekly market report newsletter that will be sent each weekend to subscribers. So from now on all future posts and analysis will be for subscribers only. Each weekend subscribers will receive a market report with a detailed analysis and forecast for a plethora of different markets. Among them will be the Dow Industrials, Transports and Utilities averages. The S+P 500, S+P 100 and Q's (NASDAQ 100) averages, along with two individual stocks in Google and Apple. Over the last few years followers have seen my forecasting in real time. Coupled with the technical analysis that continues to project excellent support and resistance levels ahead of time. All of my posts are available and are time stamped, so I encourage everyone to look through them and see if this service can be of future help to you and your decision making in these volatile markets. It's as good of work as anyone out there in the public eye. And most likely better!
Don't just take my word for it though, let's take a look at a few posts just in this year alone:
My call on Apple - May 2012
My post on May 15th called for a low to form on Apple somewhere between $530 and $526. Then making new all time highs after.
On May 18th Apple put in a swing low at $522 and never looked back, trading as high as $705 in the process!!!
Next: My call on the overall direction of equities, June 2012
It was June 1st following a dismal jobs report number and the futures were falling faster and faster. The majority were scared and selling fast. My post called for readers to buy! buy! buy! and that strong support was near for a run to new bull market highs.
The market bottomed out the next trading day and never looked back. Eventually making new bull market highs and rallying over 16%!!!
Next: My call on where the market most likely will put in a swing high
It was August 20th and the market was close to taking out it's high from April, making new bull market highs as predicted. I laid out a plan on where I thought longs should target and even reverse short, as it was likely to become a swing high area.
The results: The area for resistance was marked as 1474-1500 on the S+P. On September 14th, about a month after resistance was called for, the market put in it's swing high at 1474.51 on the S+P. Target was achieved and held as resistance to the very point! And it has at this point in time traded over 70pts lower since, with probably more downside to go before support is eventually found.
Those are just a few examples in this year alone, of posts that helped readers make beneficial financial decisions. Just one of those calls alone would have made up for subscription fees and much more.
For $50 a month you will receives these detailed reports every weekend. Payment transaction is via paypal for excellent security and service and for peace of mind. There are no refunds, but there are no commitments, you may cancel at anytime. I'm confident you will find these weekly reports extremely helpful whether you are a short term trader or investor. These days with more and more program trading and indexing, following these market averages is absolutely necessary and critical. Even if you invest and/or trade individual stocks you must be aware of the major market averages. For no matter whether you have a portfolio of stocks made up of the best companies in the world. If the overall market direction is down, most likely your stocks will follow. So no matter who you are or what you do, if your in the markets in anyway, I know these reports will be very beneficial to you.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Apple quarterly earnings are due this afternoon, so let's take a look the big picture for a minute.
A lot of energy has been built in Apple here, we've got almost 5 day's of inside price action counting today. Since the $622 level and trend line has been broken, back test also failed. Now unless price can break back above that trend line, expected support now rests below around 583.25 - 571.82 which would match the size of the April drop in both pts and percentage.
(Bottom chart) If in the case that support zone fails for whatever reason and/or if the general market rolls over, a potential pattern emerages which could create an inverted head and shoulders with a neckline somewhere around those 522 lows. That if broken would yield at least a test of that open air pocket between $440-$420 price level, and possibly as much as $350 or so. The leaders like Google and Apple have underperformed lately, which is a general market reversal sign. But in many cases throughout history, I find the averages still stage another push or two up as the laggards play catch up. This could very well be the case here.
We'll see what happens after the bell.
Monday, October 22, 2012
First off, our upside resistance level mentioned months ago (1474) became the ultimate swing high of the rally, to the point!
Now what's next? Well the biggest drop we seen since the reversal in June measured 54.19 points, that equates to support at 1420.32 SP from last highs. 1422.38 (area we bounced from today) is April's bull market high. Also I've marked the swing highs and lows on the chart since we've been inside this current bull flag formation off the 1474 highs. It's been 2 down moves of 43 and 45 points with 2 up moves of 40 and 38.50 pts. That equates to 1420-1418 as support respectively.
So we've got confluence below us, I don't really like Friday's high volume high range bar hanging above. But unless we can see a reaction against the prevailing trend that is greater than any of the previous reactions I'll assume the trend will continue for a little longer.
That being said, this short term bull is getting old. I'm going to use the size of the last breakout rally (77.95 pts) as my measuring stick. Take that from today's low and we get 1500 SP on the dot, matching the trend line resistance above. I think that's as good as place as any for a swing high.
It's possible we then see a type of inverted head and shoulders pattern (see 2011) before breaking down, we should see bearish divergences emerge as well on the internals. We should then be looking for at least a drop of 155pts that matches the drop from the April highs to the June lows of this year, and most likely test that trend line below.
I am still long term bullish and I believe once the coming reaction finds support we should see a rally to follow that takes the S+P back up to it's all time high in the 1550-1576 area.