Saturday, July 4, 2009

Looks can be decieving!

Here is a very interesting and also serious post, for those of you that have been on the sidelines for this "rally" and are looking to get back in I say now is not the time. Let's look more into this "rally" off of our March lows with charts from each of the 3 major indices.

Even with this non stop rally off those lows, look at where we have gotten. The SPX and the Dow has ONLY hit their 38.2% retracement level. In other words we have retraced only 38% off the last major high. The Nasdaq was able to hit its 50% retracement before getting rejected.

On an intraday short term basis, until the break is above the 61.8% the move is suspect. The 50% is respected but 61.8% is key. I say that to say, on 2 out of the 3 major indexes we have yet to break the 38% level. Don't be fooled this bear market is still alive and well, I would be careful getting in at these levels and advise against it. There is still a lot of uncertainty out there, look at the jobs report Thursday, stagflation is very much in the cards for the next couple of years.

Again if you read one of my first posts you know my stance, is this the apocalypse or the end of the world, of course not. But with all these looming issues and massive debt, expect to see other countries show growth before us and for us to be stagnant for awhile.

Thus the title of my post, looks can be decieving, do not fall for the hype!