Thursday, September 3, 2009

Gold Update

I had posted months ago about this inverted head and shoulders forming on Gold that would eventually break out to new all time highs. Well here we are again with a close @ 992.40 on spot we are now closing in on the neckline of this pattern (horizontal line) with the 3/10 MACD confirming by making higher lows, if/when we break this just watch how fast Gold starts shooting to the moon.

My best guess for what will happen is a break of the neckline attracting many many buyers pushing prices up and fast. Next I believe we should sell off again though to shake out the weak longs and to retest the neck line before sky rocketing once again. So expect some serious volatility not just straight up moves, but should be some good opportunities coming soon.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

US Dollar forming a bottom?

I believe looking at the dollar we are in a bottom forming process, the question though is will there be a breakout? Why would there be a breakout? Both good question, and I believe there is really no reason for the dollar to rally other than since it has been hit so hard it may be time for the bears to give this thing a break.

From the daily chart you see above, the 3/10 MACD, has been consistently making higher lows while the dollar is making lower lows. That to me is a bullish divergence. I think 77's will hold and may actually be a good play to take a chance on.

If for some reason the dollar does start to move up, that would not be good for stocks. I know Gold had a good day today as well, my EOD charts on Gold haven't updated yet when they do I may do a quick post on that and Oil, as it is an important thing to keep an eye on.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

WOW!!! Summer Trading days are over!!!!!

  • What an amazing market we have today, here is the 5 min chart of the entire day. I went long early in premarket with a target of a full gap fill for today, I was a little nervous of the trade as yesterday's gap was not filled and the first trading day of the month the gap fade play's percentage is less. Boy I am glad that I did it though, I waited for a 50% retracement as seen on the chart to hold to go long, we had continuous buying blowing through the gap fill and the daily pivot. Obviously I wasn't going to sell with such momentum behind me, the next logical target was yesterday's gap fill at 1027.50 that failed yesterday. Look at the chart 1027.50's traded and was the high of the day. I immediately sold my long at that point and waited to see the reaction.
  • I began to see selling pressure immediately hit after the gap fill the bears confidence came out in full. So I immediately looked for my place to jump in on the short side. As on the chart I waited for the bounce to the 50% retrace of the previous move where I got filled, you could have also sold the pivot once it broke below that would have been a great trade as well. We continued to sell off fast and furious to the gap fill at 1007.50's level where I sold my short.
  • However, as I type we continued to sell off into the 1003's level. Oh well, I can't complain 13 points up and 17 points down for a 30 point day so far in only 2 trades was AMAZING!!!!
  • I could get used to this, very fast technical market back on!!!!!!!! Now I need to go back to my 15 min chart and re asses the market and see what is setting up next.