Monday, July 20, 2009

Intermarket Relationships, US dollar and equity markets

Here is an interesting chart showing how different markets react to one another. This chart is a daily on the US dollar, the top is the line chart daily on the S + P 500. The first thing you should notice is how these markets are almost inverted to one another, as one goes up the other goes down and vice versa.

Check out the top in the USD around the March 9th equity markets bottoming, and the following steep decline in the Dollar over inflation fears among other things. This has been one of the major reasons we have seen such a steep incline in the market and why it is becoming increasingly more complex to chart and trade this market. But one thing I will tell you is to keep the ticker up for the USD dollar and keep close tabs on it intraday as it could save you from making some serious mistakes. The ticker I use intraday is the DXY - US dollar index spot price.

Right now signals are too mixed to take any positions, we had a decent rejection of prices at the ES 945 area, but no follow up as of yet. Tick and A/D Line favor the bulls but not by much. Remember to respect stops right now until the market finally tips its hand.