Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Market UPdate... wow!...

Well the market has clearly rejected prices below 1540 on the S+P 500 last week with today's new all time high print. And has been quite resilient, more so than even I initially anticipated. What this most likely means is that we will finish out and complete the measured move to the upside before the correction occurs. Luckily for shorts the measured move targets on a few different levels are not too far away.
The first chart above is a daily of the S+P 500 going all the way back to this latest bull market campaign origin in 2011. It is the same chart that was posted in in this recent post LINK. Basically the Supply-Demand pattern on this chart shows us the upside target/reversal area coming in between 1607 and 1614.
The bottom chart is a monthly chart of the S+P 500 going all the way back to the year 2000. Basically the message I'm trying to relay here is to see if we can spot previous patterns and line them up to make successful calls for the future.
So I want to see how much higher the 2007 bull market high pushed above the 2000 bull market high. What we get is 23.22 pts higher than the previous bull market high. So we can project that to our current bull market by adding that same amount to the 2007 bull market high this time.
What we get is 1599.31 on the S+P as a projected target now because of it. Now we have a clearly defined range to either take profits or even sell out completely and even reverse short.
So again our upside range in light of today's price action becomes 1599.31 - 1614.35. Once this target is achieved a 15-20% decline should begin. We should be trading below 1340 on the S+P 500 in the coming months. 

Friday, April 5, 2013

Market Update: The Top is IN!....

The market is sending me clear signals that the top has been put into place at 1573.66 on the S+P 500 this week.

We've had our correction estimations at 15-20% all along, so now that we have an actual swing high to calculate from we can project the downside targets for covering short positions and getting back in long for what should be one more tremendous rally to another new bull market high.

This downside projection is highlighted on the weekly chart of the S+P 500 above. It comes in between 1337.62 and 1258.93. I've been leaning all along to around an 18.7% correction as I've mentioned in previous posts. I've highlighted that exact spot with the big green horizontal line coming in at 1279.39.

Regardless, the market top is in and defensive we must be.