Thursday, August 13, 2009

ES current range, topping process or consolidation?

Here's the breakdown of the last week or so's action on the ES, check out the channel ES has formed here, question is, is it a topping process or is it a consolidation for the next move up? Well my bias is on the bull side, but I would not be surprised to see a reaction take down ES to the 965 level to gain momentum for a stronger move higher. Now if we break 965 then we may have something more going on here, but I don't see that happening any time soon.
Basic range has been between 1015 and 990 on the ES, we hit the upper channel this morning and look how the market reacted to that, futures we up over 100 points on the Dow, but by the time we opened it turned negative. Now that's a powerful channel!
Also, take a look at the pre-fed craziness as the Market makers drop the es slightly below the range, probably suckering in a lot of bears before taking off first thing in the morning to the upside. However the bullish divergences that formed on the MACD, STOCHS, and RSI would have kept you out of this trade or even gave you a much better opportunity to get long.
Also post fed days are known to be weird days anyway, that is why I didn't go long on the tick extreme like I usually would, I waited for it to break a resistance level before jumping in on the long side just in case it was a sucker move, even still I took my profits and ran this morning. I know a lot of really great traders that just shut down and take the entire Fed week off because of action like this. So if you got stuck in some bad trades this morning, don't be hard on yourself, I can guarantee you that more people lost money today than made money.
I'll post the chart of today's action with Tick later on.