Thursday, November 12, 2009

ES EOD Wrapup

First chart above shows 60 min trading in the ES for the last week and a half off the 1026 low, the White dotted line you see is the Pivot for each day. We have finally tested and closed below the daily pivot for the first time during this move up. The pivot can be calculated by taking the high/low/close divided by three. Looks like a minor correction is underway, or might have been completed.

The bottom chart shows the last measured move up and the retracement levels currently in place, as you see we were holding the 23% retrace @ 1091.50's for awhile, but on an overextended move like this without a meaningful retracement, the 23% retrace's chances of holding are low. Later today we bounced off the 38% and are currently holding. It may look like we need to test the half way back 50% retrace though on this one to hit the -23% target @1115's.

I have a limit order now placed @ 1078.50's looking to get long for 1115 target and a 38pt gain in the Intermediate term.

On the short term I would wait until the open tommorow to see the strength/ weakness in the internals, as long as we don't have up trend like market internals it would be relatively safe to short into the rallies looking for the 1078.50's.