Thursday, November 12, 2009

Dow hits its 50% retracement, Russell 2k fills its crash gap!

First chart above shows the Dow futures hitting its 50% retracement or half way back of the entire move off the all time highs to March lows.

The bottom chart shows the breakaway or crash gap that was filled on the TF or Russell 2k futures.

These 2 factors and the fact that the US Dollar appears to be trying to break its short setup leads me to be a little gunshy in jumping back in on the long side. If the bears have anything left this is the time to come back out in full force, if not capitulation will occur, although this time it will be capitulation by the bears and not the other way around. I keep talking about a potential "Blow Off Top" and strength on all the major indexes above these levels may make that a reality.

Right now trading on shorter tme frames is extremely dangerous, these are the times when you should be looking at your 60 min chart and leave the minute charts to those who feel crazy or lucky, or both?

Right now we have a VST range of 1089 to 1103, you can trade off the ends of those ranges for whatever your bias may be, anything in between those ranges and you better be looking to take your profits and run or you will be dissapointed.